Given that the general theme of this blog is meant to be the possible, likely and unlikely, big and small, it seems to me like a good idea to start with the possibilities that I stand a decent chance of having an impact on: what I want to accomplish in my own life.
For a start, I’m studying Materials Science and Engineering at Virginia Tech. I want to do work with photovoltaics (solar panels), and as far as specifics go, I don’t know much beyond that. It’s not that I don’t know what my goals in life are; I just see many different paths to take to approach them.
I don’t really have a particular attachment to the field of materials. I have had an abiding passion for rocketry since I was little, and smoldering interest in many fields: law, politics, economics, business, education, and the pure sciences. I also think I can say with confidence that I could perform competently in any field of engineering (with the probable exception of programming). But I believe that among all these fields of learning, solar materials is worth studying for a number of reasons. For one thing, it is fertile ground professionally; chock full of opportunities for anyone young and ambitious. Photovoltaic technology is in that Goldilocks period where it is well enough established that may recognize its value (thus it’s relatively easy to acquire funding for research), but there is tremendous room for improvement and innovation; the trail has been blazed but the road has yet to be paved (think the Internet, circa 1990). But more importantly, I think that solar technology has more potential than any other I can see on the horizon to aid in accomplishing the things that I think are really important to the human race: Raising the majority of the world’s population from extreme poverty (and reducing everyone’s impact on the environment to sustainable levels once we get there), and beginning to tap the staggeringly vast resources of the solar system.
These are both gargantuan tasks. I want to contribute in my own small way towards them, but I don’t labor under the delusion (or perhaps vision?) that I will, or even can play a major role in solving these problems; rather I merely want to join in the work, in any way that I can.
I believe that the rationale for wanting to eradicate extreme poverty can be summed up quite succinctly: Humanity can only reach so high when parts of it are chained so very low. I believe that the real problems in the world, those that continue to retard human growth and development, and those that pose an existential threat to civilization itself can only be effectively addressed if we bring the vast majority of the world’s population up to tolerable levels of health, education, economic development and liberty. I believe this to be true for both moral and practical reasons. I believe the moral reasons for helping those who are suffering greatly and haven’t the ability to help themselves are self evident and I will not go into them here. Besides, men and women far more intelligent and eloquent than I have already stated the case. But the practical motivations are, I think, all too often over looked. The first and most obvious is population. During the 18th century, Thomas Malthus predicted that because human population grows exponentially, and agricultural output arithmetically, that severe and perpetual famine would inevitably befall humanity. Obviously, this was not the case. Why? Because of the one thing that Malthus didn’t, (couldn’t really, to his credit) anticipate: the industrial revolution. That history shattering metamorphosis of human society had two major effects (with respect to population): massive increases in productivity that allowed for more efficient growth of crops, and a plummeting fertility rate, that has spread out a generation or so behind industrialization as it sweeps the globe. Why? Because the social and economic effect of children changed. To paraphrase a recent article in The Economist, when families no longer depend on subsistence farming, children may be joys, liabilities, or accidents, but they are no longer insurance. And when population growth is tamed, economic growth and a plethora of other factors can better benefit people. In terms of how macroscopic trends affect individual well being, excessive population growth bears a resemblance to excessive inflation. Runaway inflation is ruinous because it wipes out savings; whereas unemployment prevents a person from earning money, inflation erodes what they already possess, and perpetually diminishes their ability to make money even if they have a job. Similarly, out of control population growth dilutes the benefit of a rapidly growing economy. If a nation’s economy is growing wealthier just as fast as or slower than its population is growing, then individuals stay poor, even as the country grows wealthy.
I believe that another understated reason why eradicating poverty will ultimately benefit all of us is the issue of human resources. One of the most persistent trends in the global economy today is the increasing importance of innovation. Ideas, not raw materials, nor manufacturing capability is, and will continue to be the lifeblood of the global economy. But the fraction of humanity that is able to contribute their ideas, expertise, and ambition to the global conversation is cripplingly small. It’s as if America’s top universities and corporations only recruited students from a single American city. It is not just possible, or even probable, it is downright dictated by the immutable laws of statistical distribution that the human race’s best and brightest are missing in action. The story of William Kamkwamba is an exception that proves the rule (as well as put a big grin on your face).
The other big task that I think is of great importance to the human race is to move human industry into space and begin harnessing the immense resources of the solar system. The amount of raw materials available in the solar system dwarfs anything that the earth can provide. One example is the asteroid 16 Psyche. Making up roughly 1% of the mass of the asteroid belt, it is a potato shaped hunk of nearly pure nickel-iron roughly 200 km in diameter. It is estimated that the total mass of metal that it contains is 1.7 x 1019 kg. By comparison, the global production of crude steel currently stands at roughly 1 billion short tons annually. By these estimates, the metal available from this one asteroid is roughly ten million times what the world currently produces each year, and it’s just sitting there in its own shallow gravity well just past mars. Not to mention that virtually the entire thing is pure metal, not ore (the thing shines like a goddamn gold nugget).
And that’s only the half of it: given the present bounds of physical knowledge, the mightiest engine that humanity will ever conceivably harness has already been built and conveniently placed in the middle of the solar system. Every second of every day of every year, from before the earth was born till long after it dies, the sun pumps out enough energy to power our present day civilization for a million years. (the hard number, if you’re interested, is 384.6 yottawatts, or 3.846 x 1026 Watts). All we must do, anywhere in the solar system, is extend our technological hands (which we already poses) and we shall receive the Manna that is perpetually falling from heaven. Any civilization that taps even a minuscule portion of the solar system’s resources is one that is an order of magnitude wealthier and more powerful than our present day one.
On top of that, earth is a difficult place to do industry. The planet earth is really good for three things: being a nice place to live, being a good place to grow things, and being a big living museum of the wonderful and wild variety of life. Space is far better suited to semiconductor processing, ore smelting, chemical processing, etc. There are tremendous costs (when the law is enforced) associated with keeping the byproducts and waste associated with heavy industry from affecting human life. It’s akin to shitting where you eat, and in the long run doesn’t make economic sense. The bottom line is that our current situation doesn’t efficiently utilize our available resources. The Earth is the only place where we can live and to build another, whether by constructing space stations, hollowing out asteroids or terraforming planets would likely represent an investment of hundreds of trillions of dollars, and several centuries.
You may be wondering, at this point, how solar technology ties into all this. I hate to disappoint, but for brevity’s sake (and to keep you interested), I will have to outline this in other posts.
But everything I’ve just talked about isn’t really important (important to be sure, but not really important). The two goals that I have spent roughly the last thousand words attempting to outline in a clear and intelligent manner are, I believe, just means to an end. Because I believe that once we achieve these things we can begin the real work of the world. I believe that the most precious thing that we have ever discovered, and probably the most precious thing that the universe has yet created is sentient life. And the ultimate task that I want to contribute to, in my own small way, is to spread life, light, and love to the other specs of rock and dust drifting through the vastness of space(the title is the German translation; I particularly like how it came out). Why these things? Because I think that these are the qualities that are most fundamental to what it is to be human. Wherever we go, these things will be brought with. Life, that most miraculous of chemical tricks, and all the infinite potential it has for renewal and variety. Light, the “God-given intellect which is the crown and glory of manhood,” (Betas) that has, with a scant few billion minds, over a blip of mere thousands of years, blossomed with a vastness and variety that absolutely boggles the mind. And yes, love. There are few things as fundamental or powerful in human affairs, and where ever we go, it will follow (or perhaps lead?). This will be the true work of the human race and all sentient life in the universe, with all the millennia of history so far written merely the birthing cry of a newborn race. It will continue, down through the eons, onto the entropy death of the universe , until all of existence pulses with life and intelligence.
No small task, to be sure. But we have to start somewhere.
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